This time it won’t be a walkover for Macron
It is to be a re-run of the 2017 second round, where Emmanuel Macron pulverised Marine Le Pen. But this time around, let no-one be under any illusion that it will be so easy.
Estimations from round one show how tactical voting rewrote the electoral map.
Voters gathered into three broad camps: Macron, the far-right and the far-left. In the last days of campaigning, many people who were considering other candidates finally decided that they would rather back a frontrunner.
There was thus a big transfer of votes from Éric Zemmour - the hard-right nationalist pundit - to the camp of Marine Le Pen. Some right-wingers in the conservative Republicans party may have done the same.
On the left, voters decided that neither the Socialist Anne Hidalgo nor the Green Yannick Jadot could ever make it into round two. So they shifted massively to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, simply to keep a leftist in the race. This despite many Socialists and Greens actively disliking the man.
And in the centre, many who would normally have chosen the Republicans' Valérie Pécresse will have plumped instead for the incumbent. Why? Because they were genuinely afraid that Le Pen and/or Mélenchon were coming up too strong from behind.
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